Syllabus

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University

Каф. менеджменту та адміністрування

Economic Forecasting

syllabus

1. Educational programs for which discipline is mandatory:

# Educational stage Broad field Major Educational program Course(s) Semester(s)
1 bachelor's 7. Управління та адміністрування 073. Менеджмент (бакалавр) 4 7

2. The course is offered as elective for all levels of higher education and all educational programs.

3. Information about the author of the course

Full name Кужда Тетяна Іванівна
Academic degree Cand. Sc.
Academic title Assoc. Prof.
Link to the teacher`s page on the official website of the University http://library.tntu.edu.ua/personaliji/a/k/kuzhda-tetjana-ivanivna/
Е-mail (in the domain tntu.edu.ua)

4. Information about the course

Study hours structure Lectures: 32
Practical classes: 32
Laboratory classes: 0

Amount of hours for individual work: 71
ECTS credits: 4
Teaching language english
Form of final examination exam
Link to an electronic course on the e-learning platform of the university https://dl.tntu.edu.ua/bounce.php?course=1596

5. Program of discipline

Description of academic discipline, its goals, subject of study and learning outcomes

Purpose of the “Forecasting and modeling of economic processes” is forming the student’s interest in producing the qualitative and quantitative forecasts based on time series, econometric models and judgmental methods; in using various auxiliary analytical tools, in examining recent data and assessing the forecasts accuracy

The place of academic discipline in the structural and logical scheme of study according to the educational program

List of disciplines based on learning results from this discipline

Business Analytics
Managirial Decision Making Methods

Contents of the academic discipline

Lectures (titles/topics)

Topic 1. Introduction to economic forecasting
Topic 2. Forecasting based on analytical indicators of time series
Topic 3. Forecasting based on average methods
Topic 4. Trend forecasting
Topic 5. Trend forecast estimation
Topic 6. Forecasting with seasonality
Topic 7. Simple exponential smoothing method
Topic 8. Double exponential smoothing method
Topic 9. Forecasting with regression model
Topic 10. Forecasting with confidence interval

Practical classes (topics)

Topic 1. Introduction to economic forecasting
Topic 2. Forecasting based on analytical indicators of time series
Topic 3. Forecasting based on average methods
Topic 4. Trend forecasting
Topic 5. Trend forecast estimation
Topic 6. Forecasting with seasonality
Topic 7. Simple exponential smoothing method
Topic 8. Double exponential smoothing method
Topic 9. Forecasting with regression model
Topic 10. Forecasting with confidence interval

Learning materials and resources

1. G. Elliott, C.W.J. Granger and A. Timmermann Handbook of economic forecasting. – 2016. – 1012 p.
2. Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen, Bruno Tissot. Economic Forecasting and Policy. – 2014. – 416 p.
3. Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry A. Companion to Economic Forecasting. – 2014. – 300 p.
4. John H. Cochrane. Time Series for Macroeconomics and Finance. – 2015. – 135 p.
5. Samprit Chatterjee, Jeffrey S. Simonoff. Handbook of Regression Analysis. – 2013. – 240 p.
6. Daryl S. Paulson. Handbook of Regression and Modelling: Applications for the Clinical and Pharmaceutical Industries. – 2016. – 420 p.
7. Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry. The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting. – 2011. – 624 p.

6. Policies and assessment process of the academic discipline

Assessment methods and rating system of learning results assessment

Module 1 - 20
Module 2 - 20
Assignments - 35
Credit test - 25


Table of assessment scores:

Assessment scale
VNZ
(100 points)
National
(4 points)
ECTS
90-100 Excellent А
82-89 Good B
75-81 C
67-74 Fair D
60-66 E
35-59 Poor FX
1-34 F
Approved by the department
(protocol №
on «
»
y.).